- Under FAR 15.304(c)(3), past performance must be evaluated in negotiated competitive buys expected to exceed the $350,000 simplified acquisition threshold, unless the contracting officer documents why not.
- Evaluators judge relevance and currency, not just the adjective. A Very Good on similar work beats an Exceptional on unrelated work.
- No record means a neutral result. FAR 15.305(a)(2)(iv) says you may not be rated favorably or unfavorably.
- A small or set-aside buy shrinks the field of rated competitors, which helps a new entrant.
- You build a record with subcontracts, small awards and clean paperwork, then protect it with the CPARS comment window.
Yes, in the way the government uses the phrase. Evaluators assume how you performed before tells them how you will perform next. That assumption is written into the rules, and it is why a clean record is worth real money. It is also a forecast, and forecasts can be wrong. This post covers how the forecast is built, how much weight it gets, and what to do when you have nothing to show yet.
Does past performance really predict future performance?
It is built to. FAR 15.304(c)(3) requires agencies to evaluate past performance in negotiated competitive acquisitions expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold, currently $350,000. The contracting officer can skip it only by documenting why it is not an appropriate factor for that buy.
Below the threshold it is optional. Agencies can still look, and many do. If you want the full basics, including PPQs and where to find records, read our past performance guide.
How do evaluators turn your record into a score?
FAR 15.305(a)(2) tells evaluators to consider how current and relevant the information is, where it came from, and the context. The source selection authority decides how relevant each example is. Agencies often use their own confidence labels, such as substantial, satisfactory, limited or no confidence, but those labels are set by the solicitation and vary by agency. Read Section M to see yours.
Relevance beats the adjective
CPARS uses five ratings: Exceptional, Very Good, Satisfactory, Marginal and Unsatisfactory. Evaluators do not just count them. They ask whether the work was similar in scope, size and complexity to the job being bid.
| Your record | How an evaluator is likely to read it |
|---|---|
| Strong ratings on similar, recent work | Strongest case for confidence |
| Strong ratings on unrelated work | Helpful, but weighed lightly |
| Satisfactory on similar work | Acceptable, not a differentiator |
| Marginal or Unsatisfactory on similar work | Raises doubt, and you need to address it |
| No relevant record | Neutral, so price and technical merit decide |
That table is a plain-English reading, not a regulation. Each solicitation sets its own scale.
What does a neutral rating mean for new entrants?
FAR 15.305(a)(2)(iv) says an offeror with no relevant record, or whose information is not available, may not be evaluated favorably or unfavorably on past performance. That sounds fair, and mostly it is. The catch is that rated competitors can earn points you cannot.
You make up the gap elsewhere. Key personnel with relevant experience, major subcontractors with a record, and a tight technical approach all count. The FAR lets evaluators consider the record of key personnel and of subcontractors doing major or critical work, so a strong teammate can carry you.
Is past performance a reliable predictor?
Partly. Ratings are written by people with different habits, some narratives are thin, and a rating can be several years old by the time someone reads it. Treat it as one signal alongside price, staffing and technical approach.
That cuts both ways for you. A strong, specific narrative stands out, and a weak one with no context hurts more than you would think. Read every evaluation and use your comment window, as we cover in How the COR Shapes Your CPARS Rating.
How do you build a record with no federal contracts?
Start with subcontracts
A prime can give you written feedback and a reference you can cite in a proposal. Government CPARS evaluations are usually written for primes, so do not count on one for a subcontract. Ask for a letter at the end of the job. Our teaming agreement guide and the prime outreach email template help you get the first conversation.
Win small awards
A micro-purchase is $15,000 or less and usually a card buy, as covered in our micro-purchase guide. Those buys rarely come with a formal evaluation, but they give you a customer who can vouch for you. Ask for a short reference letter.
Use sources sought notices
Answering a sources sought notice puts your capability in front of the contracting officer before the solicitation exists. It does not give you a rating, but it can help justify a set-aside. Only answer when your NAICS code and certifications fit.
Keep your paper trail
Save acceptance emails, delivery receipts and dated status reports for every job. When someone asks for proof, you hand it over in minutes.
How do you protect the record you already have?
Review every CPARS evaluation. Under FAR 42.1503(d) you have up to 14 calendar days from the notice to comment, and you can ask for review above the contracting officer if you disagree. Correct facts, add dates, and attach proof. Leave out opinions about the evaluator.
Agencies generally use the information for three years after completion, and six years for construction and architect-engineer work (FAR 42.1503(g)).
How should past performance shape your bid/no-bid call?
Before you spend a week on a proposal, check who holds the work and whether your record supports the bid. If the incumbent has a strong record, the solicitation weighs past performance heavily and you bring no teaming partner or set-aside edge, PASS is a fair call. Save the effort for bids where your profile fits. The free GovCon tools include a bid scorecard for exactly this.
Want a faster way to build your record?
If you would rather follow a step-by-step plan than figure it out alone, these are my own products on Gumroad:
Past Performance from Scratch: Win Bids Without Federal Contracts ($47) walks you through building a record before your first prime contract.
Subcontractor Positioning Kit: Get on Winning GovCon Teams ($37) helps you get on the teams that build your first references.
Government Contractor Capability Statement Template ($19.99) gives you a clean one-page format to send with your outreach.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does past performance predict future performance in federal contracting?
That is the assumption behind the rules. FAR 15.304(c)(3) requires past performance to be evaluated in negotiated competitive buys expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. It is a forecast, not a guarantee, and evaluators weigh relevance and currency.
Can I win a federal contract with no past performance?
Yes. With no relevant record you get a neutral result, so price and technical merit decide. Key personnel, strong subcontractors and smaller or set-aside buys help.
Is past performance required for every federal contract?
No. It must be evaluated in negotiated competitive acquisitions expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold unless the contracting officer documents why it is not appropriate. Below that, it is optional.
How long does past performance count?
Agencies generally use information for three years after the contract or order is complete, and six years for construction and architect-engineer contracts, under FAR 42.1503(g). Solicitations may set their own recency window for what you can cite.
Can I dispute a bad CPARS rating?
You cannot delete it, but you get up to 14 calendar days to comment, and you can ask for review above the contracting officer. Your comments stay with the record.